Identifying R&D partners through Subject-Action-Object semantic analysis in a problem & solution pattern

Today’s companies still rely heavily on expert knowledge rather than quantitative data with a systematic approach to effectively identify and choose Research and Development (R&D) partners. It is advantageous to identify and select potential R&D partners using a Problem & Solution (P&S) pattern. This paper presents a novel process for identifying R&D partners on the basis of solution similarities that assist technology managers in understanding the relationships between research targets. First, we choose a thematic dataset that contains problems and quantitative data with relative topic terms. Then, we extract Subject-Action-Object semantic structures in a P&S pattern from the dataset, and identify various solutions to a technical problem, with each as a subject. In addition, we provide correlation mapping to visualise the text characters and identify R&D partners. Finally, we validate the proposed method through a case study of the dye-sensitized solar cells sector.     

The economic impact of tourism in SIDS

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are faced with many challenges to economic development. Tourism is seen as a viable, and sometimes, only means of economic growth. This research compares the economic impact of tourism to seven SIDS. The research employs input output analysis, linkage analysis and a CGE model to assess the macroeconomic and sectoral impacts of increased tourism in these islands. The findings show that the transportation sector remains a key sector. The tourism income multipliers show that tourism generates a large amount of economic activity but the income that remains in the destinations is often very small. The results show that taking advantage of economies of scale maybe a way to maximize the benefits from tourism.     

THE THEORY OF ENDOGENOUS MARKET STRUCTURES

Most market structures are neither perfectly or monopolistically competitive: they are characterized by a few large firms that are engaged in strategic interactions in their production and investment decisions and whose number is endogenous. The theory of endogenous market structures analyzes markets in partial and general equilibrium where strategies affect entry and entry affects strategies, and exogenous primitive conditions on technology and preferences affect the equilibrium. We discuss applications to industrial organization, international trade, business cycle theory, international finance, growth and implications for welfare and for competition, trade, fiscal and monetary policy.     

Forecasting economic activity from yield curve factors

This paper provides clear-cut evidence that the slope and curvature factors of the term structure of interest rates (yield curve) contain more information about future changes in economic activity than the term spread itself, often used in the literature as a predictive regressor of economic activity. These two factors reflect different information about future economic activity, which is smoothed out by the term spread. The paper shows that the slope factor has predictive power on future economic activity over longer horizons ahead, and thus may be interpreted as reflecting future business cycle conditions. On the other hand, the curvature factor, which enters the term spread with opposite sign than the slope factor, has predictive power on shorter movements of future economic activity which may be associated with changes in the current stance of monetary policy. These results hold for a number of world developed economies.     

基于GIS的边坡三维极限平衡模型研究

自然界中发生的滑坡绝大多数呈三维形态,边坡稳定性分析应从三维的角度进行处理。在实际边坡工程作业中,科学地计算边坡受到边界条件约束、荷载作用、土体性质在空间上变异等实际形态的影响,同样需要进行三维稳定性分析。目前边坡稳定性分析仍以二维极限平衡法为主。当滑动面已经确定时,使用三维分析可以恰当地考虑滑坡的三维形态对安全系数的影响,同时可以避免二维分析时如何选择代表性横截面,计算结果是否合理等问题。     

MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

A note on the long rate in factor models of the term structure

In this paper, we consider factor models of the term structure based on a Brownian filtration. We show that the existence of a nondeterministic long rate in a factor model of the term structure implies, as a consequence of the Dybvig–Ingersoll–Ross theorem, that the model has an equivalent representation in which one of the state variables is nondecreasing. For two‐dimensional factor models, we prove moreover that if the long rate is nondeterministic, the yield curve flattens out, and the factor process is asymptotically nondeterministic, then the term structure is unbounded. Finally, we provide an explicit example of a three‐dimensional affine factor model with a nondeterministic yet finite long rate in which the volatility of the factor process does not vanish over time.     

Stochastic Route Choice Equilibrium Assignment for Travelers with Heterogeneous Regret Aversions

Most route choice models assume that people are completely rational. Recently, regret theory has attracted researchers’ attentions because of its power to depict real travel behavior. This paper proposes a multiclass stochastic user equilibrium assignment model by using regret theory. All users are differentiated by their own regret aversion. The route travel disutility for users of each class is defined as a linear combination of the travel time and anticipated regret. The proposed model is formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved by using the self-regulated averaging method. The numerical results show that users’ regret aversion indeed influences their route choice behavior and that users with high regret aversion are more inclined to change route choice when the traffic congestion degree varies.     

Domestic and international impacts of the rice trade policy reform in the Philippines

Faced with high domestic rice prices that have fueled inflation above the 2018 target and penalized poor consumers the most, the government of the Philippines has decided to abandon the quantitative restrictions on imports and replace them with tariffs. This paper uses a global rice model based on a partial equilibrium framework to assess the possible impacts of this reform on imports, production, consumption and prices. In contrast with past similar studies, we address three key concerns (i) the heterogeneity in farm price across 16 regions in response to the combined effect of the tarriffication and the average historical trend in productivity increase at 1.5% between 2001 and 2018, (ii) the differentiation of imports by origin partly due to the different tariffs applied to countries within and beyond the Association of South East Asian Nations, and (iii) the effect on domestic prices in third countries. The simulation results suggest that the reform would increase imports by 2.47 million tons (20.7%) in 2019. We also find a large decline in farm prices and retail prices respectively by PhP 6.1/kg (30.1%) and PhP 7.6/kg (17.4%) in 2019 that explains an increase in rice consumption. We estimate the fall in total inflation at 1.2% in 2019 but less over time. Further, the large fall in farm prices in 2019 is shared quite evenly among regions in the short term but returns to pre-reform levels in the near term. Using a higher price elasticity of supply for one region obtained from panel data surveys, we show a more pronounced decline in production than the national average. Such differentiated results confirm the relevance of using a regionally disaggregated model to design more targeted policies. We also show a slight increase in world prices, which led to small increases in the domestic prices of South and Southeast Asian rice markets. While this reform is largely pro-poor consumers, policy makers would need to use the additional tariff revenue to help rice growers either increase their competitiveness and modernize their rice production or shift to other crops.     

长距离隧道的通风选型问题浅析

笔者以新建兰渝铁路六标段花石隧道为例,对该隧道的应有的通风设计,结合现有通风方式的弊端和改进,进行浅要的比较分析,在此基础上对同类型隧道的通风选型进行总结。